| Some experts believe United
and other carriers beset by the worst economic turmoil in their history will
increase mileage giveaways to entice and keep customers; but with schedules
being trimmed, cashing them in will also become harder.
That has been a historic trend in the industry, according
to Josh Romanow, a Washington-based aviation and travel law attorney.
"If there are fewer flights in the air -- fewer seats -- and
if each aircraft is assigned a portion of award seats, logic dictates fewer
available (free) seats," he said.
And, the value of the accumulated awards is diminished, "like
the devaluation of the peso," added Romanow, a partner with Pillsbury Winthrop
LLP.
The same concern was reflected in a recent poll of frequent
fliers conducted by mileage expert Randy Petersen. When asked where they thought
United's Mileage Plus program would stand in six months, about 31 percent
of the respondents saw fewer award seats, and the likelihood that United
would require more miles to obtain one.
However, nearly 40 percent said they thought the program would
stay pretty much the same as it is today. Only 10 percent thought the program
would be abolished.
For the record, United has said it expects "business as usual"
across the board while it reorganizes under court supervision, including
the mileage program which has about 41 million participants owed more than
11 million free tickets.
But there may be a land rush of sorts coming up as people
try to redeem their United miles in the near term.
Vicki Mills (www.fly-free.com)
says she has a huge chunk of United miles in the bank but thinks it will
be safe to continue to earn and use them at least through 2003.
"I do not foresee any situation (short of a major war) that
would curtail your enjoyment of Mileage Plus awards during the next year,"
he said.
Joe Brancatelli, who publishes an on-line newsletter for frequent
travelers (http://www.brancatelli.com)
says a crunch could come earlier than one year in terms of where those miles
can be spent because United and the other carriers will bring out new spring
schedules the last weekend of March. He says to "expect massive cutbacks
in United's service at that time -- many flights currently on United's schedule
will disappear."
Studies have found that frequent travelers usually belong
to several mileage programs, meaning that fewer options at United could increase
demand for seats or upgrades at other airlines.
One ameliorating factor could be that since United is part
of the "Star Alliance," Mileage Plus members can use their miles for travel
on other airlines in that group. They cannot, however, be combined with miles
banked in the other programs or used for upgrades.
The other members of the Star Alliance are Air Canada, Air
New Zealand, Austrian Airlines, BMI, Lauda, Lufthansa, Mexicana, SAS, Singapore
Airlines, Thai, Tyrolean and Varig.
There are also other ways to cash in on accumulated miles
that could help reduce pressure.
Members of both the United and American Airlines frequent
flier programs can transfer miles into the Diners Club Rewards program in
increments of 10,000, with each mile turning into one Club Reward point, up
to a limit of 50,000 in any one year.
The points can then be spent on merchandise from a gift catalogue
-- or changed back into miles in any frequent flier program out there. The
last option, however, comes with a penalty -- it takes 2,000 points to get
1,000 miles, though there's no limit in any calendar year on how many can
be acquired.
United's miles and those of other carriers also can be converted
into points in the Hilton HHonors program, though the rules governing that
vary by airline and are changing, effective Jan. 1.
Generally, a spokeswoman said, air miles can be converted
to hotel points in the program on a one-for-one basis as of Jan. 1. And it
will take 10,000 honors points to acquire 1,500 air miles. Specific questions
are best directed to 1-800-HHONORS.
For another way to spend miles, check out http://www.milepoint.com. Subscriptions
to more than 50 major magazines can be paid for entirely with miles from
Delta, Northwest, Continental, US Airways, America West, Midwest Express
and Hawaiian airlines. The company also allows customers to buy gift certificates
at major retailers of $25, $50 and $100 using 90 percent cash and 10 percent
miles from those same airlines.
The miles involved in those purchases are retired from circulation,
with the airlines or other point providers in the program paying fees to
MilePoint for taking them off their books.
FLY FREE when you earn 10,000 Bonus Miles just for signing
up for the Gold Delta SkyMiles(r) Credit Card.
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